Staff Working Paper No. 1,087
By Andrea Alati, Johannes J Fischer, Maren Froemel and Ozgen Ozturk
How do firms adjust their investment in response to sales shocks and what determines the response? Using a unique firm‑level survey, we propose a novel approach to estimate UK firms’ marginal propensity to invest (MPI) out of additional income: the forecast error of their sales growth expectations. Investment responds significantly to these sales surprises, with a 1 percentage point unexpected growth in sales translating into a 0.31 percentage point increase in capital expenditure. Firms that are more attentive to the state of the economy are more responsive, consistent with sales growth surprises providing firms with information about their demand. Sales growth surprises also cause firms to increase their prices, supporting this interpretation. We do not find evidence that these results are driven by financial frictions, uncertainty, or productivity shocks.
Firms’ sales expectations and marginal propensity to invest