Human capital ladders, cyclical sorting, and hysteresis

Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.
Published on 12 July 2024

Staff Working Paper No. 1,077

By Edoardo Maria Acabbi, Andrea Alati and Luca Mazzone

Using administrative data, we document that workers acquire more human capital at more productive firms. Recessions distort workers-firm sorting, flatten the job ladder and impact human capital accumulation, as workers match on average to worse firms. To quantify the aggregate relevance of these effects, we build a directed search model with aggregate risk and worker-firm heterogeneity, in which human capital accumulation depends on firm quality. We estimate the model and show that recessions have persistent negative effects on the productivity of worker-firm matches, with distortions in sorting and human capital accumulation accounting for approximately 30% of cumulative output losses.

Human capital ladders, cyclical sorting, and hysteresis